Two States, One Script: How Israel and Ethiopia Mirror Each Other’s Expansionist Ambitions

Setting the Stage – Expansion as Policy

For decades, the Global South has been reminded that “rules-based order” is supposed to be the glue of international relations. Yet when you look closely at how Israel and Ethiopia conduct themselves, the rules start to look more like props in a stage play directed by Western powers.

Israel’s behavior is the most glaring. What began as occupation of Palestinian land has expanded into entrenched control of Syrian territory in the Golan Heights. Not satisfied, Israel has carried out cross-border strikes on Iran, Lebanon, and even further afield, flexing its military muscle far beyond its borders. Each move is carefully framed in the language of “self-defense,” even though the map clearly shows offense dressed up as protection.

Ethiopia is following a disturbingly similar trajectory. The occupation of Somali territory in the Ogaden region is treated as a “domestic matter,” when in fact it is colonialism in disguise. The bloody border war with Eritrea showed Addis Ababa’s appetite for land it never truly owned, and today, under Abiy Ahmed, the rhetoric is clear: Red Sea or bust. His line that “yesterday’s mistakes will not be today’s” is less poetry and more veiled threat — a message to Eritrea that independence was a mistake he intends to correct.

And here’s where the satire writes itself: Israel calls itself a democracy while expanding into neighbors; Ethiopia wins a Nobel Peace Prize and immediately starts preparing for war. Both cases are proof that awards and rhetoric are cheaper than peace.

Western Sponsorship – Cover Fire for Expansion

None of this would be possible without the Western powers acting as patrons.

In Israel’s case, U.S. military aid flows like a broken faucet, and every violation of international law is either vetoed at the UN or sanitized by human rights language that avoids naming the real culprit: Netanyahu himself. Imagine if any African leader carried out airstrikes in five countries within weeks — the ICC would have a docket ready by lunchtime. Yet for Israel, the watchdogs bark politely and then go back to sleep.

Ethiopia enjoys a different but equally convenient sponsorship. For decades, it has been treated as the “darling of aid donors” — so much so that many Africans now call it “Aid-topia.” Billions in foreign aid have poured into the country even as Addis Ababa used that leverage to destabilize its neighbors. Western powers, terrified of Chinese or Russian influence in the Horn of Africa, quietly tolerate Ethiopia’s ambitions.

And when Abiy Ahmed talks about needing a port — not access, which Ethiopia already has, but control — Western media outlets echo the script almost word for word: “landlocked Ethiopia seeks Red Sea access for survival.” The framing is designed to draw sympathy, just as Israel’s narrative of “security” draws endless Western arms. In both cases, language is weaponized before missiles even launch.

Territorial Hunger – From Ogaden to Golan

The heart of the comparison lies in territory. Both states are gripped by the belief that their current borders are too small for their ambitions.

Israel envisions a larger Israel stretching beyond Palestine, embedding itself in Syria, striking Iran, and intimidating Lebanon. The rhetoric of expansion is cloaked in biblical destiny, but the bombs that drop are made in America.

Ethiopia, meanwhile, cannot let go of its historic imperial dreams. The Ogaden region of Somalia remains occupied, and the desire to command the Red Sea coast is treated as a matter of survival — when in fact it is a geopolitical gamble to dominate trade routes and weaken Eritrea.

Both Israel and Ethiopia justify expansion through existential narratives: Israel must expand “for security”; Ethiopia must expand “to survive as a landlocked nation.” But scratch the surface, and you find resource control, trade routes, and sheer arrogance.

And here is the bitter irony: both nations accuse their neighbors of being destabilizing forces, all while acting as the architects of regional instability themselves.

Media Silence and Watchdog Hypocrisy

Perhaps the most frustrating piece of this puzzle is the silence — or selective outrage — of global watchdogs.

Human Rights Watch can produce endless reports on abuses in Sudan, Syria, or Eritrea, but when Washington blocks Palestinian officials from entering the UN General Assembly, HRW suddenly loses its pen. When Netanyahu signs off on bombing raids across sovereign borders, HRW phrases it as “Israel should refrain from excessive force.” Notice the passive language: no leader is blamed.

The Sentry, backed by Hollywood names like George Clooney, loves to shine a spotlight on African corruption. But ask yourself: when was the last time they investigated U.S. or Israeli involvement in Africa’s wars? Their silence is as deafening as it is revealing.

And let’s not forget the Western media outposts that echo Ethiopia’s demands as “reasonable.” They publish maps and stories about Ethiopia needing “sea access” — as if Eritrea’s independence never happened, as if Somalia’s Ogaden region isn’t already under Ethiopian control. It’s propaganda dressed as journalism, and it works because most readers never ask who benefits from the narrative.

The Bigger Picture – Drums of War, Notes of Hypocrisy

Both Israel and Ethiopia are now beating the war drums. Israel escalates conflict with every strike outside its borders; Ethiopia frames war as the only way to gain the coast. Both are emboldened by Western powers who supply weapons and political cover.

The partnership between the two states should not surprise anyone. Expansionist dreams attract one another, especially when underwritten by the same sponsors. Israel provides military know-how, Ethiopia provides strategic access in the Horn of Africa, and together they create a destabilizing alliance that threatens not just neighbors but entire regions.

As an African, it is infuriating to watch history repeat itself. Expansionism is nothing new — colonizers drew borders with guns, and now regional powers do the same with Western backing. The tragedy is not just that Israel and Ethiopia pursue larger maps, but that the world pretends this is normal, even justified.

If rules really mattered, both Netanyahu and Abiy Ahmed would be held to the same standard as any other leader threatening sovereign nations. Instead, we get the same tired story: selective outrage for some, silence for others.

And so the cycle continues. Expansion dressed as security. Occupation framed as necessity. Silence sold as neutrality. But the truth is clear: Israel and Ethiopia are reading from the same playbook — and the world is letting them turn the page.