Trump’s Shifting Policy on Africa: U.S. Airstrikes in Somalia and Their Impact on the Horn of Africa

A Shift from Disengagement to Direct Action

When Donald Trump returned to the presidency in 2025, many expected him to maintain his previous stance of reducing U.S. military involvement in Africa. During his first term, he had ordered the withdrawal of nearly all U.S. troops from Somalia in December 2020, aligning with his broader “America First” strategy. His rhetoric leading up to his re-election suggested that Africa would not be a major focus of his foreign policy. However, just weeks into his second term, Trump authorized a series of airstrikes targeting ISIS operatives in Somalia, marking a clear shift from his previous position.

This decision raises numerous questions: Why the sudden change? What are the immediate and long-term consequences of this move? And how does this impact Somalia, the broader Horn of Africa, and U.S. foreign relations in the region? This article delves into these questions, analyzing the implications of Trump's latest military intervention.

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Background: The U.S. Role in Somalia and Trump’s Previous Stance

The U.S. has maintained a military presence in Somalia for decades, primarily focused on counterterrorism efforts against Al-Shabaab and ISIS factions operating in the country. Under the Obama administration, drone strikes and Special Forces operations increased significantly, as the U.S. sought to dismantle militant networks that posed a threat to both regional stability and Western interests.

However, in December 2020, during Trump’s first term, he ordered the withdrawal of approximately 700 U.S. troops from Somalia, shifting American counterterrorism operations to a “remote” strategy. Instead of maintaining a ground presence, U.S. forces would conduct occasional airstrikes from bases in Kenya and Djibouti, relying on Somali forces to lead the fight against militants.

This withdrawal was controversial, as security analysts and Somali officials warned that it left a power vacuum that terrorist groups could exploit. Indeed, in the years following the U.S. pullout, both Al-Shabaab and ISIS in Somalia gained ground, intensifying their attacks on Somali government forces, civilians, and even regional U.S. allies such as Kenya.

Trump’s recent decision to re-engage militarily in Somalia represents a reversal of this earlier approach. Despite his prior claims that the U.S. should focus on domestic issues rather than policing foreign conflicts, the February 2025 airstrikes against ISIS leaders suggest that Trump’s foreign policy is now evolving.

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The February 2025 U.S. Airstrikes in Somalia

On February 1, 2025, the U.S. military, under Trump’s orders, conducted a series of precision airstrikes in Somalia’s Golis Mountains, a known stronghold for ISIS-affiliated militants. These strikes reportedly killed multiple senior ISIS operatives involved in planning attacks against both Somali and international targets.

The Pentagon’s statement following the strikes claimed that the operation was carried out in coordination with the Somali government to neutralize a growing terrorist threat. While details remain classified, U.S. officials indicated that intelligence reports suggested an imminent attack against American and Somali interests, necessitating immediate military action.

Trump later took to social media to defend his decision, stating:

> "We will find and destroy the terrorists who threaten America and its allies—no matter where they hide. Our enemies should know: We will not hesitate to act."

While his supporters praised the move as a demonstration of strong leadership against global terrorism, critics were quick to point out the contradiction between his earlier promises to disengage from Africa and his sudden willingness to intervene militarily.

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Implications for Somalia: Security Gains or More Destabilization?

1. Impact on Counterterrorism Efforts

For Somalia’s fragile government, these airstrikes provide a short-term boost to security. The Somali National Army (SNA) has struggled to contain both Al-Shabaab and ISIS factions, often relying on international military support. By eliminating key ISIS figures, the U.S. has temporarily weakened terrorist operations in the region.

However, history has shown that airstrikes alone do not eradicate terrorist threats. If not followed up with sustained ground efforts and economic stability measures, militant groups tend to regroup and adapt, finding new ways to terrorize local populations.

2. Civilian Casualties and Anti-American Sentiment

Another major concern is the potential for civilian casualties. U.S. airstrikes in Somalia have faced criticism in the past for mistakenly hitting civilians. If reports emerge that innocent Somalis were killed in these latest strikes, it could fuel anti-American sentiment and provide terrorist groups with propaganda material to recruit more fighters.

Al-Shabaab and ISIS often exploit civilian casualties to frame the U.S. as an enemy of Muslims and Somalis, using these narratives to justify further attacks. The longer the U.S. engages militarily in Somalia without a clear exit strategy, the greater the risk of fueling local resentment.

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Regional Implications: How the Horn of Africa is Affected

The Horn of Africa is already one of the most geopolitically unstable regions in the world, and U.S. military actions always have ripple effects beyond Somalia. Here’s how Trump’s renewed intervention could impact the region:

1. Ethiopia’s Internal Conflicts

Ethiopia, Somalia’s powerful neighbor, is dealing with multiple internal conflicts, including tensions in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia. If Ethiopia perceives a U.S. military resurgence in Somalia as a long-term presence, it may attempt to leverage American involvement to gain military or economic support against its own internal threats.

2. Kenya and U.S. Military Bases

The U.S. operates military bases in Kenya and Djibouti, where it launches drone strikes into Somalia. Kenya, which has suffered devastating Al-Shabaab attacks, will likely support further U.S. military engagement. However, if Kenya becomes too involved in Somalia’s conflicts, it risks facing more terrorist retaliation.

3. Increased Foreign Interest in the Region

With the U.S. reasserting military influence in Somalia, other global powers like China, Russia, and Turkey may adjust their strategies in the Horn of Africa. China, for instance, has deep economic ties in Djibouti and Ethiopia and may view renewed U.S. involvement as a threat to its regional interests.

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Trump’s Strategy: Tactical Move or Long-Term Policy?

One of the biggest questions moving forward is whether these airstrikes signal a larger military commitment or if they were a one-time show of force. Given Trump’s past unpredictability in foreign policy, several scenarios could unfold:

1. Scenario 1: Continued Airstrikes but No Ground Troops

The U.S. may maintain an "over-the-horizon" counterterrorism strategy, launching airstrikes only when major threats arise but avoiding large-scale troop deployments.

2. Scenario 2: Full Military Re-Engagement in Somalia

If ISIS or Al-Shabaab increase their attacks in response, Trump may be pressured into sending special forces back into Somalia.

3. Scenario 3: Complete Disengagement

If Trump believes Somalia is not a priority and receives backlash for these strikes, he could halt further operations and pivot away from African affairs.

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Conclusion: What Comes Next for Somalia and the Horn of Africa?

Trump’s decision to launch airstrikes in Somalia, despite his earlier stance on non-intervention in Africa, signals a shift in U.S. foreign policy. Whether this marks the beginning of a broader military engagement or a one-time tactical strike remains to be seen.

For Somalia, these strikes provide temporary relief from ISIS but may not be enough to ensure long-term stability. For the wider Horn of Africa, the U.S.'s renewed military presence could have complex geopolitical consequences.

Ultimately, Trump's actions highlight the contradictions in his foreign policy—where campaign promises to disengage from Africa conflict with real-world security threats that demand action. How this situation evolves will depend on how terrorist groups react, how Somalia's government handles the aftermath, and whether Trump sees strategic value in maintaining U.S. involvement in the region.