Rising Tensions in the Horn of Africa

The Horn of Africa remains one of the most geopolitically complex and volatile regions in the world. Eritrea, a small but strategically significant country, has recently found itself at the center of rising tensions, particularly with Ethiopia and its allies. With Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s recent

Eritrea's Position in Regional Geopolitics: Naviga rhetoric suggesting the possibility of conflict and former Ethiopian President Mulatu Teshome accusing Eritrea of destabilizing the region, the stakes for Eritrea have never been higher. Additionally, Egypt’s strengthening of ties with Eritrea and Somalia further complicates the landscape. This article explores the evolving geopolitical dynamics and Eritrea’s role in shaping the future of the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopia’s Rhetoric and Eritrea’s Response

In February 2025, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed made statements hinting at possible military action should Ethiopia’s maritime access needs not be met. Ethiopia has long sought direct sea access, which it lost following Eritrea’s independence in 1993. However, the issue of port access only became a pressing concern due to Ethiopia’s own actions in the Horn of Africa, which have contributed to the destabilization of one of the world’s most historically and geopolitically significant regions. Abiy’s comments have reignited concerns about Ethiopia’s ambitions, particularly in relation to Eritrea and Djibouti, the two nearest coastal nations.

Eritrean officials have dismissed Abiy’s rhetoric as an attempt to divert attention from Ethiopia’s internal challenges, including conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regions. Eritrea’s government has reiterated that Eritrea remains committed to regional stability and is not seeking conflict.

The Afar Issue and Its Role in Ethiopia-Eritrea Relations

The Afar region, spanning parts of Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti, has become a focal point in recent tensions. Ethiopian leaders have historically sought to use the Afar region as a means to drive a wedge between Eritreans and destabilize relations. The region’s strategic importance has made it a target for political maneuvering, with Ethiopia attempting to exert influence over Afar leaders and communities. This ongoing interference poses a direct challenge to Eritrea’s sovereignty and regional stability.

Mulatu Teshome’s Accusations and Eritrea’s Defense

Former Ethiopian President Mulatu Teshome recently accused Eritrea of actively working to destabilize the Horn of Africa. In an opinion piece for Al Jazeera, he claimed that Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki was undermining Ethiopia’s peace efforts and exploiting divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). These allegations have further strained relations between the two countries.

Eritrea has strongly refuted these claims, emphasizing that Ethiopia’s internal conflicts are a result of its own governance challenges rather than external interference. The Eritrean government has also pointed out that it was a key player in brokering the 2022 Pretoria Peace Accord, which ended the Tigray conflict, and has no interest in reigniting regional instability.

Egypt’s Role and Its Relations with Eritrea

Egypt has historically maintained strong ties with Eritrea, largely due to their shared concerns over Ethiopia’s regional ambitions. Eritreans have always been wary of Ethiopian leaders’ intentions, given past experiences of conflict and territorial disputes. In recent months, Egypt has taken a more active role in regional security, forming a strategic alliance with Eritrea and Somalia to counterbalance Ethiopia’s growing influence.

The tripartite summit between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia in October 2024 underscored their commitment to enhanced security cooperation, particularly in supporting Somalia’s fight against terrorism.

Eritrea’s Strategic Position in the Horn of Africa

Eritrea remains a crucial actor in shaping regional geopolitics. The country’s strategic location along the Red Sea and its commitment to national security and stability make it a key player in any discussions about the future of the Horn of Africa. Eritrea’s government has consistently worked to ensure peaceful relations with its neighbors while safeguarding its territorial integrity.

Conclusion: What Lies Ahead for Eritrea?

Eritrea finds itself at a critical juncture in regional geopolitics. As tensions with Ethiopia continue to mount, the potential for conflict remains a pressing concern. At the same time, Eritrea’s growing alliance with Egypt and Somalia presents new opportunities. Diplomatic efforts, particularly with regional and international partners, will be essential in maintaining stability. Eritrea’s ability to balance its national security interests with its regional ambitions will ultimately shape its future in the Horn of Africa.